The moderating roles of tariffs and exchange rates on ASEAN trade facilitation indices and China's cross-border e-commerce export scale

Abstract

This study aimed to determine the moderating role of tariffs and exchange rate on ASEAN countries Trade Facilitation Indices and China's Cross-Border E-Commerce Export Scale. Based on the characteristics of the development of CBEC, it constructed a trade facilitation evaluation system containing 4 primary indicators and 14 secondary indicators. The trade facilitation indices of ASEAN countries 2018-2022 countries was evaluated and compared using principal component analysis. An empirical research was conducted base on gravity model regression. The dependent variable of the model is China's CBEC export scale, the independent variable is the trade facilitation indices, and the rest of the explanatory variables include the GDP of the trading partner country, the total population, and the geographical distance between the two countries. This paper took tariff level and exchange rate as moderating variables and tests the moderating effect through regression analysis. The results of the empirical study showed that the trade facilitation index of ASEAN countries has a significant positive influence on China's CBEC exports. The tariff level and exchange rate have a negative moderating effect on the relationship between the independent variable is the trade facilitation index and the dependent variable CBEC exports. This implies in order to promote the development of CBEC exports, ASEAN countries may focus on promoting the trade facilitation. At the same time, attention should be paid to the influence of tariffs and exchange rates on CBEC exports to build a China-ASEAN free trade area.