The role of tariffs and exchange rates on ASEAN trade facilitation indices and China's cross-border e-commerce export scale

Abstract

The objective of this study is to explore how tariff policies and exchange rate fluctuations affect the level of trade facilitation in ASEAN countries and impact the export scale of China's cross-border e-commerce (CBEC). Based on the development model of CBEC, a trade facilitation assessment framework was developed that includes four core dimensions and fourteen refined indicators. Principal Component Analysis was used to quantitatively evaluate and compare the degree of trade facilitation among ASEAN countries. To verify the moderating effect of tariffs and exchange rates, a regression analysis was used based on the gravity model for empirical exploration, setting tariff levels and exchange rates as key moderating variables. Findings show that the trade facilitation index of ASEAN countries has a significant positive effect on China's CBEC exports and is a key factor in predicting the size of CBEC exports. However, the increase in tariffs and unfavorable fluctuations in exchange rates weaken the positive relationship between trade facilitation indicators and CBEC exports. To promote sustained growth of export trade among ASEAN countries and China, priority on improving trade facilitation is crucial and to regularly monitor the changes in tariffs and exchange rates to ensure appropriate strategies are formulated to mitigate their adverse effects.